by Richard Jenkins | Nov 5, 2012 | Elections
American’s are finalizing their decision on who will become the next President but it is worth considering what this election means for Obama. Can he achieve a second term and what does it mean if he does not? Incumbents have an inherent advantage when it comes...
by Richard Jenkins | Sep 8, 2012 | Elections, Industry News and Trends, Public Opinion
Just this week, we got another pseudo apologetic letter about why election polling is sometimes (perhaps even often) inaccurate. This time it was from Peter Loewen (an Assistant Professor of UofT). His article in the Ottawa Citizen is here but, it like many similiar...
by Richard Jenkins | Apr 24, 2012 | Elections, Survey methodology
There will be much hand wringing, considerable hyperbole, and lots of pseudo theories/ explanations for why the polls did not foresee the Conservative majority coming in the 2012 Alberta provincial election. Some attention will inevitably be placed on...
by Richard Jenkins | Nov 18, 2011 | Elections
During the last Canadian federal election campaign, there was considerable speculation about the large increase in turnout at the advance polls. At the time I speculated that the media and other commentators were wrong in suggesting the increase was a product of the...
